I never thought I'd be overwhelmed by Oscar coverage, but here we are! 2022 was a year of breakthrough blockbusters, from Top Gun: Maverick to Everything Everywhere All at Once (not to mention the $2 billion-earning Avatar: The Way of Water and the moneymaking griefquel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). Accordingly, Hollywood and the media cycle have honored these mega-nominated hits with nonstop articles, endless campaign narratives, and interviews interviews interviews. I don't think I've seen this much Oscar fervor in years, but hey - I've also never seen so many non-film world people talk about movies this much in years. We're back, baby - and oh, am I tired.
During this long awards season I wrote about the theme of abandonment in 2022's most prestigious films and how my favorite performances of the year were the ones that made me laugh. Overall, I was struck by the fact that the Academy loves actors who go crazy, but rarely considers movies about mental illness to be Best Picture-worthy. It's probably not going to win any awards tonight, but Tár remains my number 1 film of 2022.
Here are my predictions for the 95th Academy Awards:
Best Picture
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Might upset: Unlikely, but Top Gun: Maverick or All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
My personal pick: Tár
Best Director
Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Might upset: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Should have been nominated: Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
My personal pick: Todd Field (Tár)
Best Actor
Will win: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Might upset: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Should have been nominated: Alexander Skarsgard (The Northman)
My personal pick: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Best Actress
Will win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Might upset: Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Should have been nominated: Lea Seydoux (Crimes of the Future)
My personal pick: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Might upset: No one.
Should have been nominated: Justin Long (Barbarian)
My personal pick: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Might upset: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Should have been nominated: Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
My personal pick: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Might upset: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should have been nominated: Funny Pages
My personal pick: Tár
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Might upset: Women Talking
Should have been nominated: Fire Island
My personal pick: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Film Editing:
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Might upset: Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick
Should have been nominated: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
My personal pick: Elvis
Best Animated Feature Film:
Will win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Might upset: n/a
Should have been nominated: n/a
My personal pick: Turning Red
Best International Feature:
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Might upset: The Quiet Girl
Should have been nominated: RRR
My personal pick: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Documentary – Feature:
Will win: Navalny
Might upset: Fire of Love
Should have been nominated: Descendent
My personal pick: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Best Original Score:
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Might upset: Babylon
Should have been nominated: Crimes of the Future
My personal pick: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song:
Will win: “Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
Might upset: Unlikely, but some people might be ready for Diane Warren to finally win
Should have been nominated: "Nobody Like U" (Turning Red)
My personal pick: “Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
Best Cinematography:
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Might upset: Elvis
Should have been nominated: EO
My personal pick: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design:
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Might upset: Elvis
Should have been nominated: The Northman
My personal pick: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Costume Design:
Will win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Might upset: Elvis
Should have been nominated: Corsage
My personal pick: Elvis
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Will win: Elvis
Might upset: The Whale or All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: n/a
My personal pick: You Won't Be Alone
Best Visual Effects:
Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Might upset: Top Gun: Maverick
Should have been nominated: The Northman
My personal pick: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Sound:
Will win: Top Gun: Maverick
Might upset: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should have been nominated: RRR
My personal pick: Elvis
THE BEST OF THE REST
Best Animated Short Film: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Best Documentary – Short Subject: How Do You Measure a Year?
Best Live Action Short Film: The Red Suitcase
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