Another year, another Oscars. The 88th Academy Awards are just a day away and it’s a wide open race this spring for Best Picture. The guild awards have spoken… and they all disagree. With the PGAs going to The Big Short, the DGAs to The Revenant, and the SAGs to Spotlight, there’s a good chance many prognosticators this year will be dead wrong in their predictions. But with a major win at the WGAs, I think The Big Short will eventually wrench the top prize from The Revenant, which is a technically impressive film, but ultimately too divisive for audiences. McKay’s film, on the other hand, is informative, accessible, and fun (well, as fun as any film about the 2008 financial crisis could be.) And unlike recent politically-themed winners, not instantly forgettable. (I’m looking at you, Argo.)
Expect the acting wins to remain fairly static – Larson and DiCaprio will ride it home, Stallone has already warmed too many hearts as this cultural icon, and Vikander will capitalize on category manipulation and the Academy’s established love for Long-Suffering Wives. They’ll throw a few “craft” category bones to Mad Max: Fury Road, but pepper The Revenant in the technical fields. And don’t forget they love the loudest voices: Lady Gaga, Morricone, and Amy will get love for being visible in the zeitgeist right now. (Not that they don’t deserve it.)
Without further ado, my 2016 Oscar picks:
Best Picture
Will Win: The Big Short Might Upset: The Revenant Should Have Been Nominated: Straight Outta Compton
Best Director
Will Win: Alejandro Iñárritu (The Revenant) Might Upset: Adam McKay (The Big Short) Should Have Been Nominated: Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Best Actor
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) Might Upset: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) Should Have Been Nominated: Jacob Tremblay (Room)
Best Actress
Will Win: Brie Larson (Room) Might Upset: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) Should Have Been Nominated: Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed) Might Upset: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) Might Upset: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) Should Have Been Nominated: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Spotlight Might Upset: Inside Out Should Have Been Nominated: Trainwreck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Big Short Might Upset: Room Should Have Been Nominated: The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Best Animated Feature Film:
Will Win: Inside Out Might Upset: Anomalisa Should Have Been Nominated: The Good Dinosaur
Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: Son of Saul (Hungary) Might Upset: Mustang (France) Should Have Been Nominated: Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Best Documentary – Feature:
Will Win: Amy Might Upset: The Look of Silence Should Have Been Nominated: The Wolfpack
THE BEST OF THE REST
Best Animated Short Film: Sanjay’s Super Team Best Cinematography: The Revenant Best Costume Design: The Danish Girl Best Documentary – Short Subject: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah Best Film Editing: The Big Short Best Live Action Short Film: Stutterer Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max Fury Road Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight Best Original Song: “Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground) Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road Best Sound Editing: The Revenant Best Sound Mixing: The Revenant Best Visual Effects: The Revenant
Top 10 Movies Released in 2015
1. Spotlight 2. Room 3. Far From the Madding Crowd 4. Tangerine 5. Trainwreck 6. Straight Outta Compton 7. What We Do in the Shadows 8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 9. I'll See You in My Dreams 10. The Wolfpack
Top 10 Movies I Saw in 2015
1. To Live [1994] 2. Apur Sansar (The World of Apu) [1959] 3. Where Angels Fear to Tread [1991] 4. Natural Born Killers [1994] 5. Sunset Boulevard [1950] 6. The Seventh Seal [1957] 7. My Left Foot [1989] 8. A Raisin in the Sun [1961] 9. Love and Death [1975] 10. The Rocky Horror Picture Show [1975]
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