Final Oscar Predictions 2022

Updated: Mar 27



Man, weren't we just here? The last Oscars ceremony was less than a year ago - 11 months back to be exact. And yet, it feels like a lifetime ago, in part because the Hollywood tempo has completely shifted. While last year's prestige films depicted more than their fair share of doom and gloom, this year's awards contenders have a more youthful, hopeful flair. Indeed, it seems heartfelt family drama CODA may overtake moody western The Power of the Dog for Best Picture after all. (And love for Belfast has seemingly fallen off the face of the planet). As much as I loved TPotD, I wouldn't mind if a female-driven film took the top prize again this year, especially since it's so rare the Academy honors stories about women to begin with.


During this long awards season I wrote about the psychological turmoil now found in animated kids films and how many of 2021's female protagonists used their marriages to gain power. Overall, what I most appreciated seeing this year was a return of big, walloping film performances after more than a year of quiet rage on screen. No matter what, though, The Power of the Dog remains my no. 1 film of last year.


Here are my predictions for the 94th Academy Awards:

Best Picture

Will win: CODA

Might upset: The Power of the Dog

Should have been nominated: In the Heights

My personal pick: The Power of the Dog


Best Director

Will win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Might upset: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

Should have been nominated: Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

My personal pick: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)


Best Actor

Will win: Will Smith (King Richard)

Might upset: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

Should have been nominated: Simon Rex (Red Rocket)

My personal pick: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)


Best Actress

Will win: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

Might upset: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Should have been nominated: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)

My personal pick: Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)


Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Troy Kotsur (CODA)

Might upset: No one.

Should have been nominated: Jared Leto (House of Gucci)

My personal pick: Troy Kotsur (CODA)


Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Might upset: No one.

Should have been nominated: Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

My personal pick: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Belfast

Might upset: Licorice Pizza

Should have been nominated: Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar

My personal pick: Licorice Pizza


Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: CODA

Might upset: Drive My Car or The Power of the Dog

Should have been nominated: West Side Story

My personal pick: The Lost Daughter


Best Film Editing:

Will win: The Power of the Dog

Might upset: King Richard or Dune

Should have been nominated: The Velvet Underground

My personal pick: The Power of the Dog


Best Animated Feature Film:

Will win: Encanto

Might upset: Flee

Should have been nominated: Ron's Gone Wrong

My personal pick: Encanto


Best International Feature:

Will win: Drive My Car

Might upset: The Worst Person in the World

Should have been nominated: Parallel Mothers

My personal pick: n/a


Best Documentary – Feature:

Will win: The Summer of Soul

Might upset: Flee

Should have been nominated: The Velvet Underground

My personal pick: n/a


Best Original Score:

Will win: Dune

Might upset: The Power of the Dog

Should have been nominated: Cyrano

My personal pick: Dune


Best Original Song:

Will win: “No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)

Might upset: “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)

Should have been nominated: "Just Look Up" (Don't Look Up)

My personal pick: “No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)


Best Cinematography:

Will win: Dune

Might upset: West Side Story or The Power of the Dog

Should have been nominated: Belfast

My personal pick: The Power of the Dog


Best Production Design:

Will win: Dune

Might upset: West Side Story

Should have been nominated: The Green Knight

My personal pick: The Tragedy of Macbeth


Best Costume Design:

Will win: Cruella

Might upset: Dune

Should have been nominated: House of Gucci and Licorice Pizza

My personal pick: Cruella


Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Might upset: Dune or Coming 2 America

Should have been nominated: n/a

My personal pick: House of Gucci


Best Visual Effects:

Will win: Dune

Might upset: Spider-Man: No Way Home

Should have been nominated: n/a

My personal pick: Dune


Best Sound:

Will win: Dune

Might upset: No one.

Should have been nominated: n/a

My personal pick: Dune


THE BEST OF THE REST


Best Animated Short Film: Bestia

Best Documentary – Short Subject: When We Were Bullies

Best Live Action Short Film: The Long Goodbye




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