2017: The year I was never so happy to be so wrong.
When Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty announced La La Land Best Picture, no one in the Dolby Theatre blinked an eye. It was just par for the course, the film having racked up a bunch of major awards, including Best Actress and Best Director. La La Land is the rare original musical, and one that served as an ode to Old Hollywood. It’s not a great musical, nor is it an especially moving story. But, of course, the Academy loves some autoanilingus… so why should we have expected anything else to win?
Elated producers in tuxedos flooded the stage and I was about to shut off the TV, ready to go to bed after accepting the inevitable. Then a distressed-looking younger guy took the mic: “I’m sorry, there’s a mistake. Moonlight, you guys won best picture.” Yeah, yeah, okay. Just like when all the anointed actors and actresses address their former competitors to chant, “You were all winners!” Rah-rah.
No. “This is not a joke,” he intoned.
Holy shit.
And I cried, from sheer outrage that this mistake had happened, that a smaller but more deserving film had actually won, that the Moonlight team had their joy and their moment completely stolen from them. The dark horse had triumphed, but only in the most sweaty, fumbling way. The scene was the greatest fiasco in the history of the awards show.
And this is why I’ll never take any front-runners for granted again. Without further ado, my 2018 Oscar picks:
Best Picture
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Might Upset: Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated: The Florida Project
Best Director
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) Might Upset: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) Should Have Been Nominated: Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
Best Actor
Will Win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Might Upset: IF ANYONE, Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) Should Have Been Nominated: James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Best Actress
Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) Might Upset: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) Should Have Been Nominated: Emma Stone (The Battle of the Sexes)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) Might Upset: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) Should Have Been Nominated: Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya) Might Upset: Laurie Metcalfe (Lady Bird) Should Have Been Nominated: Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Get Out
Might Upset: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Have Been Nominated: The Post
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Might Upset: None
Should Have Been Nominated: Lady Macbeth
Best Animated Feature Film:
Will Win: Coco
Might Upset: If anything, The Boss Baby
Should Have Been Nominated: The Lego Batman Movie
Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman (Chile) Might Upset: The Insult (Lebanon) Should Have Been Nominated: First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
Best Documentary – Feature:
Will Win: The Last Men in Aleppo Might Upset: Faces/Places Should Have Been Nominated: Jane
THE BEST OF THE REST
Best Animated Short Film: Dear Basketball
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner: 2049
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Documentary – Short Subject: Edith+Eddie
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Live Action Short Film: Dekalb Elementary
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: “This is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
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